CONTEXT: Early detection of prodromal Alzheimer disease (AD) is important because new disease-modifying therapies are most likely to be effective when initiated during the early stages of disease.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the ability of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers total tau (T-tau), phosphorylated tau (P-tau), and β-amyloid 1-42 (Aβ42) to predict future development of AD dementia within 9.2 years in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and to compare CSF biomarkers between early and late converters to AD.

DESIGN: A clinical study with a median follow-up of 9.2 years (range, 4.1-11.8 years).

SETTING: Memory disorder clinic. Patients A total of 137 patients with MCI who underwent lumbar puncture at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Conversion to AD dementia.

RESULTS: During follow-up, 72 patients (53.7%) developed AD and 21 (15.7%) progressed to other forms of dementia. At baseline, CSF Aβ42 levels were reduced and T-tau and P-tau levels were elevated in patients who converted to AD during follow-up compared with nonconverters (P

CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 90% of patients with MCI and pathologic CSF biomarker levels at baseline develop AD within 9 to 10 years. Levels of Aβ42 are already fully decreased at least 5 to 10 years before conversion to AD dementia, whereas T-tau and P-tau seem to be later markers. These results provide direct support in humans for the hypothesis that altered Aβ metabolism precedes tau-related pathology and neuronal degeneration.