BACKGROUND: The predictive value of diverse subtypes of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) for dementia and death is highly variable.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive value of several MCI subtypes in progression to dementia and/or mortality in the NEDICES (Neurological Disorders in Central Spain) elderly cohort.

METHODS: Retrospect algorithmic MCI subgroups were established in a non-dementia baseline NEDICES cohort using Spanish adaptations of the original Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE-37) and Pfeffer's Functional Activities Questionnaire (Pfeffer-11). The presence of MCI was defined according two cognitive criteria: using two cut-offs points on the total MMSE-37 score. Five cognitive domains were used to establish the MCI subtypes. Functional capacity (Pfeffer-11) was preserved or minimally impaired in all MCI participants. The incident dementia diagnoses were established by specialists and the mortality data obtained from Spanish official registries.

RESULTS: 3,411 participants without dementia were assessed in 1994-5. The baseline prevalence of MCI varied according to the MCI definition (4.3%-31.8%). The follow-up was a mean of 3.2 years (1997-8). The dementia incidence varied between 14.9 and 71.8 per 1,000/person-years. The dementia conversion rate was increased in almost all MCI subgroups (p >  0.01), and mortality rate was raised only in four MCI subtypes. The amnestic-multi-domain MCI (aMd-MCI) had the best dementia predictive accuracy (highest positive likelihood ratio and highest clinical utility when negative).

CONCLUSIONS: Those with aMd-MCI were at greatest risk of progression to dementia, as in other surveys and might be explored with increased attention in MCI research and in dementia preventive trials.